Quivira to Todos Santos: Breaking Down the Pacific Real Estate Market

by Fletcher Wheaton & Mitch McDonald

The Pacific Side of Los Cabos Is Not One Real Estate Market

When people talk about the Pacific side of Los Cabos, they often describe it as if it were one real estate market. It isn't.

The Pacific side stretches from the luxury golf communities immediately outside Cabo San Lucas through areas like Cerritos, Pescadero and Todos Santos. Those markets can have completely different buyers, price points and types of properties.

And when you look at the sales numbers, the differences become pretty obvious.

Golf dominates the Pacific side

Over the period we analyzed, the Pacific side recorded approximately $195 million in closed MLS sales volume.

About 61% of that volume came from the golf communities: Quivira, Diamante, Rancho San Lucas and the newer Oleada development.

Another 33% came from Cerritos, Pescadero and Todos Santos, while the remaining roughly 6% came from smaller Pacific areas such as Elias Calles, Rancho Margaritas and Rolling Hills.

So before talking about whether "the Pacific market" is doing well or poorly, you really have to ask which part of the Pacific you're talking about.

Quivira is the giant

The number that surprised me the most was Quivira.

Quivira alone accounted for approximately half of the entire Pacific-side sales volume in the data we reviewed.

Not half of the golf market.

Half of the Pacific market.

That gives you some perspective on how much one large luxury resort community can influence the statistics for an entire region.

And Quivira isn't just a multimillion-dollar home market. Of the 47 closings we looked at, 32 were condos and 15 were homes. That means roughly 68% of its transactions were condos.

It's a good example of why looking only at average prices or total sales volume doesn't always tell you what's actually happening underneath the surface.

Diamante and Rancho San Lucas are different stories

Diamante generated approximately $15 million in MLS sales during the period we discussed, while Rancho San Lucas was around $5.2 million.

Those figures need some context.

Not everything happening inside these communities necessarily appears on the MLS, particularly developer sales and certain land transactions. Rancho San Lucas is also beginning to see more land activity, which could eventually translate into additional home construction and resale inventory.

Oleada is even earlier in its cycle. At the time of our analysis, we had not recorded a closed MLS sale there yet. But the amount of infrastructure already invested into the project makes it a market worth watching rather than drawing conclusions from an early sales number.

Then you get to Cerritos, Pescadero and Todos Santos

Once you travel farther north, the character of the market changes substantially.

Cerritos and Pescadero accounted for approximately $38.3 million in sales, while Todos Santos generated approximately $26.3 million.

Even grouping Cerritos and Pescadero together can be misleading.

Cerritos has attracted considerably more condominium and smaller-scale vertical development. Pescadero tends to have a lower-density character that in some ways resembles Todos Santos more than Cerritos.

Todos Santos is another market entirely, with its own architecture, larger parcels, custom homes and buyers specifically looking for the lifestyle associated with the area.

That's also one of the reasons properties there can take time to sell.

97% took more than 120 days

One of the most striking statistics we found was days on market.

In the Todos Santos data we reviewed, approximately 97% of home sales took more than 120 days on market.

That number needs an important disclaimer: MLS information is entered and updated by individual agents, so days-on-market statistics aren't perfect. But even allowing for that, the overall message is hard to miss.

This is generally not a market where sellers should expect to list a property and have it under contract a few weeks later.

The buyer pool can be narrower, properties can be more unique, and pricing matters enormously.

A unique property may eventually find the perfect buyer. The question is how long the seller is prepared to wait for that buyer.

Pricing matters more in this market

That brings us back to something we're seeing throughout Baja Sur right now.

Buyers have choices again.

Across the broader market, roughly 74% of recent home and condo sales took more than 120 days. The Pacific numbers reinforce that trend.

That doesn't mean properties aren't selling. It means sellers need realistic expectations.

I've watched sellers price a property based on what they hope it's worth, spend months reducing the price, and eventually sell around the number the comparable sales suggested from the beginning.

In a slower market, overpricing doesn't necessarily get you a higher offer. Sometimes it just buys you more days on market.

There really isn't one "Pacific market"

That's probably the biggest takeaway from these numbers.

A condo in Quivira, a golf lot in Rancho San Lucas, a small development in Cerritos, a home in Pescadero and a custom property in Todos Santos might all technically be located on the Pacific side.

But they aren't competing in the same real estate market.

The Pacific side is really a collection of smaller markets.

And right now, the numbers show just how different those markets have become.