Every spring I pull the MLS year-over-year numbers and report back — no spin, no cheerleading. This year the data tells a clear story: the Cabo market has cooled.
Transaction volume is down. Inventory is up. Buyers have more breathing room than they did twelve months ago.
That doesn’t mean the sky is falling. It means we’re in a different market than we were in 2024–2025, and smart buyers and sellers need to understand the difference.
These figures cover homes, condos, and land across all of Baja California Sur.
The Big Picture: Sales Volume Down 30%
Total sold volume across all property types dropped from $697M to $490M during the same January–May window — a 30% decline year over year. Transactions fell 20%.
That’s a meaningful slowdown, and it’s showing up across every category: condos, homes, and land.
At the same time, active listings increased from 6,081 to 6,781 — a 12% jump. More supply. Less urgency. Buyers finally have options again.
Condos: Stable on the Surface
At first glance, condos appear steady. Total volume actually increased slightly, from $187M to $190M.
But one zone carried the market: the San Jose Corridor.
Volume there jumped from $16.8M to $67.4M — nearly a 300% increase — likely driven by a luxury development delivering units rather than broad-based resale demand. Remove that spike and the condo market looks considerably softer.
One important takeaway: condo sellers are still holding pricing relatively well. Sale-to-list ratio barely moved, from 97% to 96%.
That tells me sellers are becoming more realistic upfront instead of chasing the market downward with repeated price reductions.
Houses: The Weakest Segment
Houses saw the biggest slowdown.
Sales volume fell 43%, dropping from $436M to $247M. Average sale price declined 28%, from $1.67M to $1.20M.
The San Jose Corridor — historically the region’s highest-end housing market — saw average sale prices fall from $6.47M to $4.55M, a 29% drop. Under-contract activity there declined 53%.
The Pacific side showed similar weakness. House volume fell 40% ($95.5M → $56.4M), while active listings climbed 27%.
There’s simply more inventory than the current buyer pool can absorb.
Sale-to-list ratio for houses slipped from 96% to 94%. That’s still relatively healthy, but buyers clearly have more leverage than they did a year ago.
Land: Slower, But Holding Together
Land volume dropped 28%, falling from $73.9M to $53.1M.
Not every market moved the same way. La Paz stood out positively, with transactions up 40% and average sale prices increasing 32%. East Cape held up relatively well.
Loreto was the major downside outlier, although it remains a very inefficient market due to limited transaction volume.
Sale-to-list ratio on land held steady at 92%, the lowest of the three categories but still relatively stable overall.
Sellers are not panicking — but with inventory climbing and transaction volume falling nearly 30%, leverage is slowly shifting toward buyers.
What This Actually Means
This is not a crash.
Prices have not collapsed. Sale-to-list ratios are still ranging between 92% and 96% across all categories.
What we do have is a volume slowdown. Fewer deals are getting done while inventory continues to build:
Condos: inventory up 1%
Homes: inventory up 12%
Land: inventory up 21%
The FOMO is gone.
Buyers are taking their time, comparing options, and becoming more selective. Sellers who are still pricing based on 2024 expectations are the ones sitting on the market.
Markets like this usually resolve one of two ways: sellers adjust pricing, or buyers regain confidence and step back in aggressively.
So far, neither has happened in a meaningful way.
If you’re a buyer, this is probably the best negotiating environment we’ve seen in the past two years.
If you’re a seller, pricing correctly from day one matters more than ever. The listings sitting unsold today are almost always overpriced relative to current conditions.
Ten years on the ground in Baja California Sur has taught me one thing:
The people who do well in slower markets are the ones who read the market honestly and adapt early — not the ones pretending conditions haven’t changed.
Questions about what this means for your specific situation?
Reach out to Fletcher Wheaton at REmexico Real Estate — fletcher@remexico.com