Los Cabos Real Estate Sales Report for 2026

LOS CABOS REAL ESTATE  |  MARKET UPDATE  |  Q2 2026

By Fletcher Wheaton  •  REmexico Real Estate  •  Data: MLS Jan 1 – May 12, 2026 vs. 2025

Every spring I pull the MLS year-over-year numbers and report back — no spin, no cheerleading. This year the data tells a clear story: the Cabo market has cooled. Transaction volume is down, inventory is up, and buyers have a little more breathing room than they did twelve months ago. That doesn’t mean the sky is falling. It means we’re in a different market than 2024–2025, and smart buyers and sellers need to understand the difference.

Here’s what the numbers actually say. These figures cover homes, condos, and land across all of Baja California Sur.

The Big Picture: Sales Volume Is Down 30%

Total sold volume across all property types dropped from $697M to $490M — a 30% decline over the same January–May window. The number of transactions fell 20%. That’s a meaningful pullback, and it’s showing up across every category: condos, houses, and land.

Meanwhile, total active listings are up 12% (6,081 → 6,781). More supply, less demand. That’s the setup.

Condos: Volume Held — But Don’t Be Fooled

On the surface, condo volume actually ticked up 1% — from $187M to $190M. But dig one layer deeper and you’ll find a single zone carrying the entire condo market: the San Jose Corridor.

That zone saw volume jump from $16.8M to $67.4M — a 300% spike — almost certainly driven by a luxury development delivering units rather than organic resale demand. Strip that out and the condo market looks considerably softer.

One genuine bright spot: condo sellers are holding price. Sale-to-list ratio barely moved — 97% last year, 96% this year. Buyers aren’t getting deep discounts on condos, and sellers are getting more realistic on pricing — a welcome shift.

Houses: The Hardest-Hit Category

House sales took the biggest hit. Volume dropped 43% — from $436M to $247M. The average sale price fell 28%, from $1.67M to $1.20M. This is where the slowdown is most visible.

The San Jose Corridor — historically the highest-value home market in the region — saw average sale prices fall from $6.47M to $4.55M, a 29% drop. Under-contract activity there collapsed 53%.

The Pacific side told a similar story: house volume down 40% ($95.5M → $56.4M), with active listings up 27%. There’s a lot of supply sitting without enough buyers to absorb it.

Sale-to-list on houses moved from 96% to 94%. Still tight — but buyers are gaining a small edge. If you’re buying a house right now, you have more negotiating room than you did a year ago.

Land: Volume Down 28%

Land sales volume dropped 28% — from $73.9M to $53.1M. Not all zones moved the same way. La Paz was a standout, with transactions up 40% and average prices up 32%. East Cape held up relatively well. Loreto was the extreme outlier on the downside — it's a thin market with limited transactions, which makes the swings look more dramatic than they are.

Sale-to-list on land held flat at 92% both years. Sellers aren’t panicking — but land has historically carried the lowest sale-to-list ratio of the three categories, and with volume down nearly 30%, the leverage is slowly shifting toward buyers.

What This Actually Means

This is not a crash. Prices haven’t broken — sale-to-list ratios are still in the 92–96% range across all categories. What we have is a volume problem: fewer deals are getting done, and inventory is building — up 1% for condos, up 12% for homes, and up 21% for land across Baja California Sur. Buyers are patient, selective, and no longer competing for the same properties. The FOMO is gone.

More inventory. Fewer buyers pulling the trigger. That dynamic usually resolves one of two ways: sellers adjust their price expectations, or buyers come off the sidelines. Right now, neither has happened in a meaningful way.

If you’re a buyer, this is the best window in two years to negotiate. If you’re a seller, price to the current market — not the 2024 market. The listings sitting unsold are almost always overpriced for today’s conditions.

Ten years on the ground here has taught me one thing: the people who do well in a slower market are the ones who read it honestly and act accordingly.

Questions about what this means for your specific situation?

Reach out to Fletcher Wheaton at REmexico Real Estate — fletcher@remexico.com