Cabo Real Estate Market Report 2026

What Actually Happened in 2025 — and What Comes Next

Entering both 2024 and 2025, the mood around Cabo real estate was pessimistic. Many analysts and agents were openly bearish, calling for a slowdown or outright correction. I went on record saying the opposite — that both years would outperform the previous one.

They did.

Now that we’re in 2026, we can look back at the actual data and separate noise from reality.

The Big Picture: Sales Volume & Transactions

In 2025, the Los Cabos MLS recorded just under $1.6 billion USD in closed sales across homes, condos, and land. What’s remarkable is not just the dollar figure — it’s that this volume was achieved with virtually the same number of transactions as the year before (only three fewer total sales).

That tells us something important:
The market didn’t grow because more properties sold — it grew because prices increased.

On an MLS basis, the market was up roughly 6% year over year.

And that’s not the full story.

Based on years of on-the-ground experience, I estimate roughly 25% of Cabo real estate activity happens off-market, meaning the true annual market size is closer to $2 billion USD. That puts Los Cabos firmly in the category of a globally relevant luxury real estate market — not a niche resort town.

Condos: High Activity, Lower Dollar Share

Condos continue to dominate transaction count while representing a smaller share of total volume.

• 40% of all transactions

• 28% of total sales volume

• ~$448 million USD in condo sales

This makes sense. Condos are typically the entry point for foreign buyers and investors, with lower price points and higher turnover. They sell frequently, but they don’t move the dollar needle the way single-family homes do.

Homes: Fewer Sales, Most of the Money

Homes accounted for:

• ~35% of transactions

• ~60% of total sales volume

• Nearly $1 billion USD in closed sales

The real story here is pricing.

In the San José Corridor, average home prices jumped dramatically:

• 2024 average: ~$4.2M

• 2025 average: ~$5.88M

That’s nearly a 40% increase in one year.

Cabo Corridor and Cabo San Lucas homes remained closer to the $1.0–$1.3M range, but the San José Corridor — particularly near Palmilla, Querencia, and Chileno — has firmly established itself as the epicenter of high-end growth.

Land: Still Active, but Shifting

Land sales represented:

• 25% of transactions

• 13.5% of sales volume

• ~$200 million USD

A noticeable trend is that many landowners who bought years ago are now moving from banking land to building on it, taking advantage of relatively low property taxes and long-term appreciation.

Large parcels — especially in the East Cape — are increasingly selling off-market, which understates land activity in MLS statistics.

One important reminder for land buyers:
Always get a survey.
Fences are not property lines, and we continue to see issues ranging from minor boundary shifts to serious title problems — especially with ejido land, which we simply do not recommend.

Regional Breakdown: Where the Sales Actually Happen

Los Cabos Proper (Cabo San Lucas, Cabo Corridor, San José)

• ~70% of all MLS sales
  Despite growing interest in outlying areas, Cabo remains dominant because it’s established, accessible, and easy to manage — especially for foreign owners.

Pacific Side (Quivira, Diamante, Rancho San Lucas, Todos Santos, Cerritos)

• ~16% of sales
  Golf communities continue to absorb significant volume, while Todos Santos is rapidly evolving into a higher-price market, with new projects launching in the $2M+ range — unthinkable just a few years ago.

East Cape

• ~4.2% of sales (~$66M)
  Beloved by surfers and lifestyle buyers, but infrastructure remains a limiting factor. Condos are nearly nonexistent (only 2 sold in 2025), and most activity is land or custom homes — often off-market.

La Paz

• ~6% of MLS sales (~$94M reported, likely ~$130M+ actual)
  La Paz is growing quickly but remains a fundamentally different lifestyle and investment profile than Cabo. Off-market activity here may exceed 40%.

Loreto

• ~3% of MLS sales
  Small but growing, limited by flight access and inventory. Strong appeal for outdoor-focused buyers, retirees, and niche investors — not for everyone.

Tourism & Investment Reality

One of the most important data points for investors:

• ~70% of Baja’s real estate sales

• ~70% of Baja’s tourism spending
  both happen in Los Cabos.

That matters for rentals, liquidity, and long-term value. While other markets are growing, Cabo remains the economic engine.

So… What About 2026?

This is where opinions split.

• One outlook: +5–10% growth, driven by luxury buyers and continued international demand.

• My view: Down slightly (-2% to -3%), but in a way most people won’t notice.

Why?
Because the market is bifurcating.

High-net-worth buyers are still transacting. Sub-$1M buyers — especially first-time international buyers — remain cautious. The result is fewer deals at the low end, while the top end continues to function normally.

Buyer’s Market or Seller’s Market?

Buyer’s market. 100%.

The FOMO is gone. Inventory exists. Buyers are patient. Options are available. Negotiation leverage has returned — especially outside trophy properties.

This mirrors what we’re seeing in the U.S. and other global markets: small price fluctuations matter less than who holds leverage.

Right now, it’s the buyer.

Final Takeaway

Cabo didn’t slow down — it matured.

The market is healthier, more rational, and more selective. Good properties still sell. Bad ones sit. Experienced agents win. Casual ones struggle.

And for buyers?
2026 may be the best window we’ve seen in years to choose, negotiate, and buy correctly.

Fletcher Wheaton - fletcher@remexico.com

Alejandro Donnadieu - alejandro@caborealestate.com